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Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has got something to learn from the alternative arguments."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."