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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its countermove: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nighttime Reality

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability afforded by current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – most likely imported technology. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.

With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, continue.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to force Russia to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Moscow is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new plans based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.