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Residents of the Big Apple will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who runs and defends the nation's largest city at a time when Donald Trump has threatened to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has turned into an acrimonious showdown, marked by accusations of racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two main contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and enjoying the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by double-digits across all surveys conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is a Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as bigoted after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed his opponent releasing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an race that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

National Implications

If Mamdani wins convincingly, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with voters' anger at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should Cuomo, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce national Democrats' existing approach of cautious, lackluster opposition – a strategy that has infuriated the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to stick to the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their choice than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has attracted an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or first-time voters.

Personal Attacks

However, Cuomo, 67, continues to fight. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has narrowed his focus on attacking the candidate directly. He has labelled his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” Mamdani as city leader. It hit bottom recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has deployed the military reserves to the capital and threatened to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

The former governor, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held all the advantages. The quintessential establishment figure, he had wed a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was elected to the state legislature in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – offer a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Still, the candidate has faced difficulties in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the NYPD and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a longtime critic of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was questioning cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's escalating attacks.

The progressive responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Speaking to the behavior of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd